Why Superteams Fail

A usage rate is not a rating. It does not tell you a player is good, and it does not tell you he is efficient. It tells you how often the offense ends in his hands.

Usage rate, written USG%, estimates the share of a team's offensive possessions a player finishes while he is on the floor. A possession can end in his hands three ways: he takes a shot, he draws a trip to the free-throw line, or he commits a turnover. Turnovers count for a blunt reason. The possession is over either way.

Here is the whole formula:

USG% = 100 x [(FGA + 0.44 x FTA + TOV) x (Team Min / 5)] / [Min x (Team FGA + 0.44 x Team FTA + Team TOV)]

Two pieces deserve a note. The 0.44 factor is there because free-throw attempts are not possessions, so it converts attempts into an estimate of how many trips to the line actually ended one. The minutes terms are there because usage is a per-floor-time rate, not a season total.

The bands are what make the number readable. 12 to 18 percent is a role player. 18 to 24 is an average starter. 24 to 30 is a primary scorer. 30 and above is elite. League average sits around 20 percent.

Then hold on to the opening line, because the rest of this course rests on it. Usage measures share, not skill and not efficiency. A player whose usage drops has not started playing worse. He has started ending fewer possessions, and that distinction is what team construction actually has to negotiate.